Gangs of New York Muscles Its Way
to the Front of the Oscar Pack

With the critics awards only a few weeks away,
how is the race shaping up for Best Picture?

By Tom O'Neil
Author, Movie Awards (Perigee Books); host, GoldDerby.com;

Waaaaaay out front for Best Picture is "Gangs of New York." Scuttlebutt says it's every bit the masterpiece promised. Suddenly this Oscar race has a spooky parallel to 1997 when wags hovered over "Titanic," wondering if the production was in trouble as its director fussed overmuch behind the scenes, causing delays. Then, remember, what happened: "Titanic" sailed on to tie "Ben-Hur's" record of 11 Oscars and to break all global box-office records. "Gangs" doesn't have "Titanic's" blockbuster potential, no, but there are many other intriguing parallels: it's a history lesson, packaged smartly with action and romance, that has the same epic scope we all know Oscar voters adore. It also has something else voters can't resist hugging: an Oscar-overdue director at the helm (Martin Scorsese). How can it lose Best Picture and Director next March? Only if it proves to be a box office disaster perhaps, but that's unlikely considering advance word on its spectacular riot scenes (for the guys) and the sexy sparks between Leonardo DiCaprio and Cameron Diaz (for the gals) - making it a perfect date movie. All that, plus "Gangs" will probably be a critics' darling.

It'll also probably be a favorite of the National Board of Review (not a critics' group - it's comprised of savvy NYC film fans). It might top the board's list on Dec. 4, which marks the earliest-ever start for awards season, by the way. Insiders say only two rivals could bump it off. "Chicago" might have the oomph given how the board kicked up its heels last year over "Moulin Rouge," suddenly booting it into the Oscar derby 5 months after "Moulin" left theaters and probably, too, the minds of most kudos givers. The other possibility: "Far From Heaven." That homage to Hollywood melodramas of the 1950s casts the same romantic spell and appears to be beloved by the board's voting members, who have a notorious hankering for sophisticated sentiment ("Gods and Monsters," "Quills," "Forrest Gump"). Rumor has it that there's also, strangely, lots of support for "Far From Heaven" among members of the oft-gritty New York Film Critics Circle, which has correctly forecast 40 percent of Oscar's Best Pictures since 1935.

But it's most likely that the NYFCC will opt for "Gangs," considering how it tends to choose its Best Pictures according to who directed them. Last year's trophy for "Mulholland Drive" was certainly a personal salute to David Lynch more than a paean to a pic that few NYFCC members could explain. Scorsese, like Lynch, is not only a fave of that electorate, he's one of them: he chums it up with NYFCC members at various panels staged at festivals, schools, museums and showbiz industry meetings. And he's a fellow New Yorker.

But "Gangs" could be vulnerable because of critics' historical scorn for big commercial movies and fondness for smaller, artier fare like "Topsy-Turvy" and "Leaving Las Vegas." The New Yorkers are such headstrong contrarians that they may want to buck the growing gushfest for Scorsese and pick something grittier -- like "Adaptation," the current fave of the art-house crowd that's forgotten about "Y Tu Mama Tambien." But it's possible that the NYFCC will not forget "Mama" if they end up deadlocked during their Best Picture voting, as they often do. That's when they ditch their lead ponies and take sudden left turns like "Mulholland Drive." "Mama" is a sexy road picture with "Mulholland's" cache.

"Mama" is also a fave of the L.A. Film Critics Association, which votes two days BEFORE the New Yorkers this year and has proven that it's not afraid to embrace subtitled fare like "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon." Mexico's neighbor status to L.A. can only help "Mama." But spies say that LAFCA also likes "Adaptation," "Antwone Fisher" and "Far From Heaven." They'll probably like "Gangs," too (members, as of this writing, hadn't seen it), but they may penalize the pic for being about their East Coast rival city. It's weird, but true: New York-themed films and TV shows are, historically, disadvantaged at L.A.-based awards.

There are a number of fascinating wild cards that could trip up this whole derby, of course. "Antwone Fisher" is a wily one to watch. It's a feel-good film about the triumph of a real-life loser, making wags wonder: could it be this year's "A Beautiful Mind"? It wowed audiences back in September at the Toronto Film Festival. It's delighting screening audiences right now and it has that Stud Star Factor going for it. There's nothing the Oscar academy likes more than hugging hunky male thesps (Robert Redford, Kevin Costner, Mel Gibson) who dare to step behind the camera to direct - and pull it off, even if only adequately ("Braveheart"). Denzel Washington is an academy darling still glowing from the crown he got from them eight months ago. If members want to give him another one so soon, they won't be shy about it: ask Tom Hanks and Katharine Hepburn.

Part of the reason that actors-turned-directors do so well is because actors make up the biggest chuck of voters, of course. That's often an important factor when sizing up the chances of movies bulging with Oscar-caliber roles -- like "The Hours," which will definitely score noms for its diva trio Nicole Kidman, Meryl Streep and Julianne Moore. Miramax controls the international rights to that Paramount pic, so Harvey Weinstein considers it one of his backup ponies for Best Picture, too. "Chicago" is his other one. It's got feet tapping in screening rooms and it looks strong enough to hoof it all the way to the Oscars, just like "Moulin Rouge" did. It's no "Moulin Rouge," though -- it doesn't make people fall in love with a movie about lovers, but, happily, it doesn't turn off whole chunks of the audience either. Between "Chicago" and "The Hours," Harvey should be covered. If "Gangs" trips up, he won't find himself in a desperate situation like he did back in 1999 when "The Talented Mr. Ripley" suddenly stumbled. Harvey freaked and opted to jam a tasty apple down voters' throats at the last minute. "The Cider House Rules" had received no major Golden Globe noms that year, remember, but it suddenly became a major, 11th-hour Oscar player -- reaping the second-most noms behind "American Beauty" -- when Harvey threw his Oscar war machine behind it.

What about the annual Miramax-vs.-Dreamworks smackdown this year? How will things play out between the two studios that have dominated the Best Picture prize 5 of the past 6 years, with Harvey prevailing twice ("The English Patient," "Shakespeare in Love") and Jeffrey Katzenberg hogging it for the past three years in a row ("American Beauty," "Gladiator," "A Beautiful Mind")? It looks like Harvey's finally regained the upper hand with "Gangs" -- plus "Chicago," "The Hours," "Confessions of a Dangerous Mind," "The Quiet American" and "Frida." Dreamworks, meantime, must pray for "Road to Perdition" to u-turn from limbo (possible) or that "Catch Me If You Can" will not be tossed off with a dash of salt as a popcorn pic.

But don't underestimate "Catch" director Steven Spielberg's power as an awards magnet. With the exception of those two "Jurassic Park" yarns, all films he's directed over the past decade have been nominated for a top Hollywood trophy. Even the pix scorned by Oscar voters earned major bids from the Golden Globes ("A.I." put Spielberg in the directors' race) or the Directors Guild of America ("Amistad"). If he fails to score a nom for "Catch," there's always "Minority Report," but that's a long-ago release that may be doomed because it's sci-fi.

Another veteran maverick director, that pixie Roman Polanski, is riding the sneakiest, darkest horse of all this year: "The Pianist." The Riviera festival revelers at Cannes draped Polanski with the Palme D'Or in May. Like Scorsese, he's overdue to win an Oscar and voters may decide that "The Pianist" hits just the right note. It's not merely about a topic of keen interest in Hollywood (the Holocaust - which earned Spielberg his overdue Oscar with "Schindler's List"), but the film's story of a Jewish composer who survived WWII by hiding from Nazis in Poland eerily mirrors Polanski's own personal story as a boy. The fact that Polanski is still on the lam from Hollywood for having seduced that 13-year-old girl in Jack Nicholson's hot tub, that's no big deal. Actually, it's a plus. Oscar voters love to welcome expatriates back after sex scandals - like Ingrid Bergman and Charlie Chaplin. Meantime, the Globes may beat them to it. Voters - who are foreign journalists working in Hollyweird - empathize with their fellow foreigner lost in the Yankee showbiz circus. They received Polanksi warmly a few weeks ago when he conducted a private press conference with them via satellite from Paris, all part of his blatant kudos campaign. Polanksi seems so convinced that he might be on the verge of a spectacular Hollywood homecoming that he has his attorneys right now hammering out a deal with the L.A. District Attorney to stop police from pouncing on him at LAX airport.

The Globes' fondness for foreigners lost in America may help "My Big Fat Greek Wedding," too, which is poised to cause Miramax one big fat problem at the Globes if it bumps off "Chicago" for Best Musical/Comedy Picture. That race is going to be one of the greatest cliffhangers in the kudos season ahead because the stakes are high: the winner of that Globe often gets an automatic berth among the Oscar High Five.

Rumor has it that the Hollywood Foreign Press are also quite smitten with "8 Mile," no big surprise when you think about it. As journalists they write about pop culture for their hometown newspapers back in Oslo and Singapore and, when they're looking around for things to write about, hey, no movie better explains that odd American phenon called rap music. Like it or not, "8 Mile" is the definitive Angry Young Man movie of our peculiar generation and it is, much to everybody's amazement, delighting crotchety critics and filling up movie theaters. Don't be surprised if it pops up among the five contenders for Best Drama Picture at the Globes when noms are announced in Dec. 19. Eminem might even, egads, score a Best Actor bid, considering how well other pop music icons like Madonna and Cher have fared in the acting categories. Let's face it, Cher wouldn't have that "Moonstruck" Oscar if it wasn't for the Globes' adoring pop stars so much. Before she won the Globe, nobody was paying much attention to her.

The Globes might nominate the new "Lord of the Rings" installment for Best Drama Picture, too, but it won't be much of a player, regardless of its guaranteed box-office and possible critical success. Fantasy films fare poorly at showbiz awards in general, of course, and the pundit consensus seems to be: If the Globes and Oscars didn't give "LOTR" gold the first time out, they're not going to do it for the sequel. Maybe -- just maybe -- they'll consider giving it Best Picture when the third, final, crowning installment is out. Meantime, it has no realistic chance of winning a major Best Picture award. Not unless Gandalf whips up some sneaky magic trick.

*****

NOTE: The opinions are those of Tom O'Neil and NOT necessarily his fellow pundits at GoldDerby.com.

For more information, contact Tom O'Neil via email at GoldDerby@aol.com.

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