Despite the fact that Martin Scorsese generally doesn't make traditional or strongly emotional movies (THE LAST TEMPTATION OF CHRIST excepted) and has never been a Hollywood club member, he's going to win a Best Director Oscar sooner or later.

My guess is, when it finally happens, it'll happen because of a one-two punch. One, Academy members will decide he's made a first-rate, Oscar-level film (GANGS OF NEW YORK, THE AVIATOR, whatever), and two, the guilt-trip factor -- i.e., why has the Academy repeatedly refused to give one of its highest awards to perhaps our greatest and most passionate filmmaker? -- will finally prove overwhelming.

The Academy may have had its reasons for denying an Oscar to the director of MEAN STREETS, TAXI DRIVER, RAGING BULL, GOODFELLAS and THE LAST TEMPTATION OF CHRIST on a case-by-case basis, but taken together, these oversights, like the stiffing of Alfred Hitchcock and Cary Grant during their working careers, do not, in the final analysis, flatter the reputation. And this has been sinking into the membership, I think, a bit more each year.

The Academy might choose to ignore this and give Best Director nods instead to Stephen Daldry (THE HOURS) or Denzel Washington (THE ANTWONE FISHER STORY), or perhaps to Phillip Noyce (THE QUIET AMERICAN) or Rob Marshall (CHICAGO), or someone I'm not seeing on my radar just yet. But the Scorsese opportunity seems pretty ripe this year.

All it will take to win one for Marty, assuming GANGS makes the grade, is a strong campaign by Miramax. All they'll have to say is that Marty's earned it, cumulatively speaking, and it's time to cough up and no more excuses. There will be no real argument against this (short of GANGS being off-putting, or not being good enough) and I doubt anyone would care to make one if there is.

Early critical reaction to GANGS, which will begin showing sometime later this month, will tell the tale. My sense at this stage, having finally seen that 20-minute preview reel, is that GANGS is going to do better with non-acolytes than, say, BRINGING OUT THE DEAD, KUNDUN or THE AGE OF INNOCENCE.

Non-acolytes like me, I mean. If I had written Christopher Moltisanti's line in that early episode of THE SOPRANOS when he sees Scorsese walking into an exclusive New York club, it would have been, "Marty? KUNDUN -- didn't like it!" In fact, I haven't been on the Scorsese boat since GOODFELLAS...but I've never stopped hoping for a reason to change my mind.

(IL MIO VIAGGIO IN ITALIA, Scorsese's four-hour documentary on Italian cinema of the '40s, '50s and early '60s, was a chip off the old block. Set aside an evening and watch it some time.)

Scorsese's publicist, Lois Smith of PMK, agrees that playing the career-achievement card with the Academy is "a definite plan...you're absolutely right," although she doubts that any potential nominee "would want to be judged on the basis that he hasn't gotten an Oscar." She claims that GANGS is "wonderful...wonderful," but says the most important thing for now "is for Miramax to start showing it, and then we'll go from there."

Smith says Scorsese is still fine-tuning the film, but that it should be screenable "in about two weeks."

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